[S-SS11] Strong Ground Motion and Earthquake Disaster

[SSS11-P02] Identification of potential problems for disaster mitigation using “the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information”, a new Japanese earthquake forecast information -how to communicate the "uncertainty" of science to society-

*Sayaka Irie¹, Ryu Ohtani², Mamoru Hyodo³, Yoshinari Hayashi⁴, Manabu Hashimoto⁵, Takane Hori⁶, Nobumasa Kawabata⁷, Kunihiko Kumamoto⁸, Takayoshi Iwata⁹, Takashi Yokota¹⁰, Kazunori Tanihara¹¹, Yo Fukushima¹² (1.NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute , 2.National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 3.Osaka Regional Headquarters, Japan Meteorological Agency, 4.Kansai University, 5.Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI), 6. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) , 7.Crisis and Environment Management Policy Institute(CeMI), 8.Edogawa University, 9.Center for Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards,Shizuoka University, 10.Disaster Prevention Research Center,Aichi Institute of Technology, 11.Nippon Television Network, 12.International Research Institute of Disaster Science,Tohoku University, (IRIDeS))

Keywords:Nankai Trough Earthquake, Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information, uncertainty, disaster information

In 2017, the Japanese government introduced a new earthquake forecast information. When unusual seismic activity or crustal movements are observed around the Nankai trough extending from off the coast of central to the southwest Japanese Islands, the government will issue “the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information” to let people prepare for the massive earthquake. However, with current seismological knowledge, it is difficult to accurately predict the time and magnitude of earthquakes. Therefore, while the information is expected to contribute to disaster mitigation, the information could also cause social disruption. The purpose of this research project is to identify the potential problems (or side effects) the information could bring to society through interdisciplinary collaboration among seismologists, disaster information studies researchers, and journalists. To this end, we apply a scenario method to construct a hypothetical scenario that describes how and when anomalous crustal deformation signals are observed, the information is issued by the government, and disseminated by TV media. Then, the scenario is displayed at scenario workshops where local stakeholders such as municipal officers and local residents discuss how they respond to the information to explore what kind of potential problems could arise. In this presentation, several findings will be introduced.