IAG-IASPEI 2017

講演情報

Oral

Joint Symposia » J03. Deformation of the lithosphere: Integrating seismology and geodesy through modelling

[J03-3] Deformation of the lithosphere: Integrating seismology and geodesy through modelling III

2017年8月1日(火) 08:30 〜 10:00 Room 401 (Kobe International Conference Center 4F, Room 401)

Chairs: Rob Govers (Utrecht University) , Kevin Furlong (Penn State University)

09:30 〜 09:45

[J03-3-05] Lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulation: implication for seismic hazard analysis

Alik Ismail-Zadeh1, 2, Alexander Soloviev2, Vladimir Sokolov3 (1.Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2.Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 3.National Center for Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Saudi Geological Survey, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, earthquake occurrences, and seismic hazards has significantly advanced during the last decades. Modeling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. We employ a model of lithospheric block-and-fault dynamics constrained by geological, geophysical, and geodetic observations to simulate earthquakes in a seismic-prone region. This model allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns. The model's performance is analyzed in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. We present results of our studies related to modeling of lithosphere dynamics in the Caucasian and Tibet-Himalayan regions. We use then the simulated large seismic events together with observations (recorded and historic earthquakes) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and discuss how hazard assessment can be improved.