[S04-4] Historical and macroseismic studies of earthquakes IV

[S04-4-05] How to Cope with Earthquakes in Himalaya?

^○Harsh K Gupta (National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, Telangana, India)

Earthquakes are one of the worst natural calamities. The Himalayan seismic belt extending from Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh has been seismically one of the most active intra-continental regions. The Gorkha earthquake of Mw 7.8 on April 25, 2015 broke a long seismic quiescence in the central Himalayan region. Many studies indicate that enough strains have accumulated to generate Mw 8 and larger earthquakes in the region. It is also argued that the Gorkha earthquake may not have released the accumulated strains and larger earthquake(s) should occur sooner or later. As short time earthquake forecast is not possible (though there are some success in medium term forecasts), and earthquake shall continue to occur. We need to develop earthquake resilient society. Developing earthquake scenarios as what would happen if one of the earlier earthquakes repeats today, and sharing it with the concerned state governments and public is extremely helpful. A couple of very successful exercises were conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India, for a repeat of the 1905 Kangra earthquake and the 1897 Shillong earthquake during the years 2013 and 2014. The 1905 Kangra earthquake had claimed ~ 19,000 human lives. For a hypothetical earthquake of Mw 8, occurring near Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, a scenario was developed taking into account the estimated intensities, population density, typology of the houses. It was inferred that the human lives lost would be several folds higher than ~19,000 lost during the 1905 Kangra earthquake. Detailed preparations were undertaken before the mock drill conducted on the 13th February 2013 involving the states of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. A similar exercise was conducted for the eight north-east Indian states for the repeat of the Shillong earthquake of 1897 during 2014. Several short- comings in preparedness were identified. The best part was public awareness generation.