[S09-3] Open session: Earthquake generation process – physics, modeling and monitoring for forecast III

[S09-3-05] CSEP-Japan earthquake predictability experiment for physics-based modeling and testing

^○Naoshi Hirata¹, Hiroshi Tsuruoka¹, Danijel Schorlemmer¹ (1.The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 2.GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany)

It is 6 years since we have established the Japanese testing center for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) in Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo. During the period of testing, in March 2011, Tohoku-oki earthquake with M9.0 occurred. The testing experiment consists of 12 categories, with 4 testing classes with different periods (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions called “AllJapan," “Mainland," and “Kanto." A total of more than 160 models are currently under testing in the CSEP Japan official suite. For three-month and one-year testing experiments, more than 30 runs of fully prospective experiments have been completed and evaluated.

After the 2011 Tohoku-oki event, most models show poor N-test performance due to large effects of the event. We found that the performance is improved if the effects were modeled explicitly by Omori-Utsu formula. The direct effect of the 2011 event needs to consider a post-seismic slip on the source fault and viscoelastic relaxation of the M9 event in the crust and the mantle.