11:15 〜 11:30
[S21-4-03] Estimating geophysical model uncertainties in testing procedures versus geodetic data
Estimating geophysical model uncertainties is crucial in order to properly compare models prediction with geodetic data. Usually, model uncertainties are disregarded and this leads to biased results. In this work, a method for defining the uncertainty of a geophysical model is presented. The empirical covariances of the model-derived quantities are estimated via a numerical procedure and fitted with proper covariance functions that are then used to compute the covariance matrix associated with the model predictions.
The proposed method has been tested in the Mediterranean area. The model's estimated tectonic strain pattern due to the Africa-Eurasia convergence in the area that extends from the Calabrian Arc to the Alpine domain is compared with that estimated from GPS velocities while taking into account both the model uncertainty and the covariance of the GPS estimates.
By considering the estimated model covariance in the χ2 testing procedure lower test values closer to statistical significance were obtained. Also, through these values a sharper identification of the best-fitting geophysical models was made possible.
The proposed method has been tested in the Mediterranean area. The model's estimated tectonic strain pattern due to the Africa-Eurasia convergence in the area that extends from the Calabrian Arc to the Alpine domain is compared with that estimated from GPS velocities while taking into account both the model uncertainty and the covariance of the GPS estimates.
By considering the estimated model covariance in the χ2 testing procedure lower test values closer to statistical significance were obtained. Also, through these values a sharper identification of the best-fitting geophysical models was made possible.