[A-CG45] 気候変動への適応とその社会実装

[ACG45-07] Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Measures to Climate Change under Uncertainty: The Case of a Kenyan Irrigation Development Project

★Invited Papers

*成田 大樹^1,2,3、佐藤 一朗⁴、小川田 大吉⁵、松村 明子⁵ (1.東京大学、2.JICA研究所、3.キール世界経済研究所、4.国際協力機構、5.日本工営)

キーワード：気候変動適応、不確実性、ロバストな意思決定（RDM）、経済評価、灌漑、アフリカ

As climate change adaptation is becoming a recognized issue, the needs are growing in terms of evaluation methodologies of adaptation-related public investments that could reflect the uncertainties of climate change. As an application of the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach, we conduct a case study of a Kenyan irrigation development project to evaluate the effectiveness of the project on climate change adaptation under uncertainties of climate change and socioeconomic factors through a combination of model simulations. Our first results, which provide a bottom-up perspective of climate change impact on African agriculture, show that despite uncertainties of precipitation trends, high temperatures resulted from climate change have a clear tendency to reduce farmers’ income due to loss of crop yields, and that irrigation development will mitigate that income loss, i.e., it will likely be effective as a means for climate change adaptation. We are currently in the process of making systematic assessment of uncertainties identified in our results based on robustness metrics.