[M-IS19] 大気電気学

[MIS19-P04] Predication of ULF geomagnetic field based on nonlinear system identification approach

*飯淵 隼人¹、Santosa Hendy¹、芳原 容英¹、Balikhin Michael²、Boynton Richard² (1.電気通信大学、2.The University of Sheffield, UK)

キーワード：ULF帯、地磁気変動、非線形システム同定手法、予測モデル

Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average Model with Exogenous Inputs (NARMAX) was applied to the time series of terrestrial ULF geomagnetic field. The one-step-ahead (OSA) prediction model was built with Orthogonal Least Square (OLS) methodology, which can unveil significant and important quantities for geomagnetic field variation. As a result, the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values was found to be around 0.8. Moreover, the model shows a good prediction performance. Furthermore, the model suggests some controlling parameter in relation with solar activity and inner radiation belt.