[A-OS07] 季節内から十年規模の気候変動と予測可能性

[AOS07-04] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system

*土井 威志¹、Swadhin Behera¹、山形 俊男¹ (1.JAMSTEC)

キーワード：エルニーニョ予測、西風バースト、東風サージ

Intra-seasonal surface westerly wind bursts (WWB)/easterly wind surges (EWS) in the tropical Pacific play important roles in the onset of El Nino/La Nina. However, the latest version of the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system tends to underestimate the chance of occurrence of those winds. This problem may cause the relatively low skill of predicting the onset of ENSO, and the over-confident problems of ENSO prediction. In this study, we developed the WWB/EWS-like stochastic forcing parameterization, and examined the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system. In my talk, failure of 2014 El Nino prediction is the focus.