コンビーナ:Rodgers Keith Bradley(IBS Center for Climate Physics)、見延 庄士郎(北海道大学大学院理学研究院)、塩竈 秀夫(国立環境研究所地球環境研究センター)、水田 亮(気象庁気象研究所)

Large ensemble model simulations are now integral tools for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated impacts. The range of tools applied encompasses Earth System Models (ESMs), Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs), Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), with the number of ensemble members typically spanning ten to several tens to one hundred. In addition to their utility in identifying emergent forced trends, they are also proving to be of great value in the study of extreme events and how extreme events evolve under anthropogenic perturbations. Furthermore, large ensembles of AGCMs nd OGCMs can prove invaluable as complements to fully coupled models in providing insights into scales and drivers of variability and trends, as well as climate feedbacks.
This session welcomes studies using the full range of large ensemble modeling tools. This includes studies of emergent trends and extreme events, and more generally studies that facilitate interpretation of observations as well as projections of future changes. Abstracts are particularly welcomed that address novel and emergent topics, including but not limited to compound events, biogeochemistry, and observing system design.