[AAS11-P01] The impact of urbanization and consumption patterns on China's Black Carbon emissions — Based on SDA and IO Analysis
キーワード：Black Carbon (BC) Emissions, Input-output (IO) Analysis, Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), Urbanization, Consumption Patterns
With the gradual improvement of China's urbanization level and corresponding household consumption changes, emissions increase with time. However, little is known about black carbon (BC), not to mention their quantitative description of BC emissions. Therefore, we first collect the BC emission factor of various sectors to calculate the consumption-based BC emissions in China, and use the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and input-output analysis (IOA) to explore the impact of urbanization and changes in consumption patterns on BC emissions from 2002 to 2012, focusing on sectoral BC emissions. The results showed that: the total BC emissions of various sectors in China increased from 1083Gg in 2002 to 1942Gg in 2007, and to 2551Gg in 2012. Meanwhile, with the deepening of urbanization (from 39.1% in 2002 to 45.9% in 2007, and to 52.6% in 2012), household consumption BC emissions increased from 446.2Gg in 2002 to 627.7 Gg in 2007, and to 895.5Gg in 2012. Focused on sectoral emissions, we found that urban consumption and BC intensity were the main contributing factors to the household BC emissions change. From 2002 to 2007, Urban consumption (positively) contributed 176.01 Gg of the incremental in household BC emissions, while 162.27 Gg were offset by BC intensity (negatively). From 2007 to 2012, due to per capita consumption or changes in consumption amount, urban consumption has increased. Consumption resulted in increased household emissions from 176.01 Gg to 359.94 Gg. However, due to the offset by BC intensity, we found that the total BC emissions increment from 2007 to 2012 was lower than that from 2002 to 2007(total BC emissions increment was 6.16Gg and 13.74Gg respectively). During the decade from 2002 to 2012, population-related factors contributed positively to total household BC emissions. The BC emissions increment impacted by urbanization was 45.31 Gg from 2002 to 2007 and 55.96 Gg from 2007 to 2012. Focused on the incremental BC emissions of each sector, transport, farming and residential contributed the most BC emissions. In particular, the transportation sector has the most significant impact on BC emissions. Urbanization affects BC emissions through its complex relationship with various sectors. So, it is necessary to formulate mitigation policies for the transportation sector.