[A-CG48] 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出

[ACG48-11] 気候と社会経済の変化が水・食料・バイオエネルギー・土地利用に及ぼす影響：陸域統合モデル MIROC-INTEG による分析

*横畠 徳太¹、木下 嗣基²、櫻井 玄³、伊藤 昭彦¹、佐藤 雄亮¹、Pokhrel Yadu⁴、岡田 将誌¹、加藤 悦史⁵、高橋 潔¹、花崎 直太¹、藤森 真一郎⁶、江守 正多¹ (1.国立環境研究所、2.茨城大学、3.農業食品産業技術研究総合機構、4.ミシガン州立大学、5.エネルギー総合工学研究所、6.京都大学)

キーワード：気候変動、全球モデル、地球ー人間システム相互作用

Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models [1]. In this study, we investigated impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on the water resources, crop growth, and land use based on the simulation by MIROC-INTEG. In the historical simulations, we validated the model output such as irrigated water, crop yield, ecosystem productions, and cropland area by comparing to the observed or reanalysis data. In addition, we performed the future simulations based on the various climate (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP) and socio-economic (Shared Socio-economic Pathways, SSP) scenarios. We extract the impact of future changes in climate and/or water resources on the food and bio-energy crop growth and land use change, by switching on/off the interaction among the sub-models (i.e., land surface, water resource, crop growth, and land use) in the MIROC-INTEG simulations.
[1] https://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2019-184/