[M-IS01] Environmental, Socio-Economic and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS01-P02] Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Population, Economy and Infrastructure in Permafrost Regions of Northern Eurasia by mid-21 century.

*Dmitry A Streletskiy¹、Sonia Clemens¹、Katherine Landers¹、Jean-Pierre Lankman² (1.George Washington University、2.Grail)

キーワード：climate change, permafrost , infrastructure

Norther Eurasia is one of the regions experiencing drastic changes in climate leading to transformation of natural landscapes. Large terrestrial areas are occupied by permafrost which following changing climatic conditions experience increase in temperature, lowering of permafrost table and melting of ground ice. These changes are commonly amplified in areas of human and economic activities resulting in permafrost-related hazards affecting population and infrastructure in the region. Using subset of CMIP6 models as forcing to permafrost-geotechnical model we estimated the changes in permafrost temperature and active layer thickness and associated hazards such as thaw subsidence and loss of bearing capacity by mid-21 century under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Socio-economic and infrastructure data were then used to evaluate the economic costs associated with such change on various types of infrastructure at both state and municipal levels. The results show the municipalities and settlements that will be most affected by permafrost degradation under each scenario and can be used to inform land use planning and sustainable development in the region.