11:00 〜 13:00
[MIS01-P09] Climate Change Trends In The "Toratau" Geopark (Western Slope Of The Southern Urals)
キーワード：climate change, vegetation dynamic, ecotone communities, CHELSA, Southern Ural
The «TORATAU» geopark is an area with geological objects of international importance, as well as natural, historical and cultural objects. The geopark is located in the Republic of Bashkortostan and occupies more than 4 thousand square kilometers.
Over the last 100 years the climate of the Southern Urals has warmed by 1.4-1.5°C. In this regard, we analyzed the climatic changes occurring in the geopark since the middle of the 20th century. Due to the uneven distribution of weather stations in the Southern Urals we used the climate data from CHELSA (https://chelsa-climate.org/), created on the basis of weather station readings and remote sensing data. For the calculations we used 30 arc sec resolution grid maps of monthly and annual mean precipitation, as well as maximum and minimum daily temperatures for the periods from 1941 to 1960 and from 1996 to 2016. Changes in precipitation and temperature were calculated as the difference between the average values for 1941-1960 and the average values for 1996-2016.
In the geopark, the change in the maximum daily temperature from May to September from the middle of the 20th century to the present day appeared to vary little. At the same time the increase in the temperature there was generally higher than the change in the average annual temperature in the Southern Urals. The precipitation decreased simultaneously with the increase in temperature in spring and summer. The decrease in spring-summer precipitation in the different parts of the geopark ranged from 34 mm to 65 mm and was most pronounced in the hilly foothills region with broad-leaved forest vegetation and in the lowland region with broad-leaved forests (mainly in the elevated terrain features). At the same time, the fall and winter precipitation has increased significantly since the middle of the 20th century, especially in the uplands. The calculated climatic changes generally comply with the data of the closest meteorological stations.
Increased fall and winter precipitation increases spring moisture supply and positively influences the growth of tree and shrub vegetation, which can lead to a shift in the forest and steppe boundary. At the same time, forest ecosystems will respond slower than ecotone steppe-shrub communities. These communities are often dominated by shrub species with early seasonal development, which benefit from a higher spring moisture supply. Shrub expansion can significantly affect the habitats of rare steppe species. Apparently, to a lesser extent, a change in the balance between winter and summer precipitation and an increase in winter precipitation will affect wetland ecosystems whose stability is determined by the thickness of the peat layer, since it accumulates moisture. Nevertheless, an anticipated increase in the frequency of severe droughts could have a significant impact on wetlands. A severe drought of 2010 significantly affected the diversity and state of populations of rare wetland species. In general, to reduce the effects of climate change on all wetlands, the conservation of adjacent forest vegetation is required. The degree of climate change's impact on cave complexes will largely depend on the condition of the terrestrial vegetation cover, which reduces soil warming.
Ten permanent test sites were established to monitor the threats of climate change impact on the geopark's heritage sites. The monitoring combines ground-based research and remote sensing. During the monitoring, we will be able to assess all major ways in which climate change impacts vegetation, including the transformation of the structure and floristic composition of plant communities in natural heritage sites.
This research was funded by grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Bashkortostan REC-RMG-2021 "Creating the methodological foundations for evaluating the greenhouse gas balance and determining the carbon sequestration potential in different ecosystems".
Over the last 100 years the climate of the Southern Urals has warmed by 1.4-1.5°C. In this regard, we analyzed the climatic changes occurring in the geopark since the middle of the 20th century. Due to the uneven distribution of weather stations in the Southern Urals we used the climate data from CHELSA (https://chelsa-climate.org/), created on the basis of weather station readings and remote sensing data. For the calculations we used 30 arc sec resolution grid maps of monthly and annual mean precipitation, as well as maximum and minimum daily temperatures for the periods from 1941 to 1960 and from 1996 to 2016. Changes in precipitation and temperature were calculated as the difference between the average values for 1941-1960 and the average values for 1996-2016.
In the geopark, the change in the maximum daily temperature from May to September from the middle of the 20th century to the present day appeared to vary little. At the same time the increase in the temperature there was generally higher than the change in the average annual temperature in the Southern Urals. The precipitation decreased simultaneously with the increase in temperature in spring and summer. The decrease in spring-summer precipitation in the different parts of the geopark ranged from 34 mm to 65 mm and was most pronounced in the hilly foothills region with broad-leaved forest vegetation and in the lowland region with broad-leaved forests (mainly in the elevated terrain features). At the same time, the fall and winter precipitation has increased significantly since the middle of the 20th century, especially in the uplands. The calculated climatic changes generally comply with the data of the closest meteorological stations.
Increased fall and winter precipitation increases spring moisture supply and positively influences the growth of tree and shrub vegetation, which can lead to a shift in the forest and steppe boundary. At the same time, forest ecosystems will respond slower than ecotone steppe-shrub communities. These communities are often dominated by shrub species with early seasonal development, which benefit from a higher spring moisture supply. Shrub expansion can significantly affect the habitats of rare steppe species. Apparently, to a lesser extent, a change in the balance between winter and summer precipitation and an increase in winter precipitation will affect wetland ecosystems whose stability is determined by the thickness of the peat layer, since it accumulates moisture. Nevertheless, an anticipated increase in the frequency of severe droughts could have a significant impact on wetlands. A severe drought of 2010 significantly affected the diversity and state of populations of rare wetland species. In general, to reduce the effects of climate change on all wetlands, the conservation of adjacent forest vegetation is required. The degree of climate change's impact on cave complexes will largely depend on the condition of the terrestrial vegetation cover, which reduces soil warming.
Ten permanent test sites were established to monitor the threats of climate change impact on the geopark's heritage sites. The monitoring combines ground-based research and remote sensing. During the monitoring, we will be able to assess all major ways in which climate change impacts vegetation, including the transformation of the structure and floristic composition of plant communities in natural heritage sites.
This research was funded by grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Bashkortostan REC-RMG-2021 "Creating the methodological foundations for evaluating the greenhouse gas balance and determining the carbon sequestration potential in different ecosystems".