14:45 〜 15:00
[U05-10] Performance assessment of Combined Drought Index in detecting impacts of agricultural drought in rice in the Philippines
キーワード：agricultural drought, drought index
Drought remains a persistent threat to food security in the Philippines, causing significant damage to the agricultural sector. Effective monitoring of drought can help mitigate its negative impacts. While several drought indices have been developed to analyze meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, only a few have been designed to monitor the transition from one type of drought to another.
This study assesses the applicability of the combined drought index (CDI), derived from satellite data, to monitor the evolution of agricultural drought. The CDI combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3), standardized land surface temperature (stdz_LST), and standardized normalized difference vegetation index (stdz_NDVI). We evaluate the performance of the CDI against rice crop damage reports from 2001 to 2019.
Our results demonstrate that the performance of the CDI varies across different provinces, with overall performance found to be better in the southern and eastern provinces of the country. Specifically, 59% of the provinces exhibit at least 70% accuracy and hit rate, while 67% have false alarm rates of less than 30%. However, only 16% of the provinces have at least 50% precision, suggesting an overestimation of drought events.
Our study highlights the potential of satellite-based drought monitoring as an efficient tool for detecting drought impacts on rice in the Philippines. This has important implications for improving the resilience of the agricultural sector, guiding the development of policies and practices aimed at enhancing its adaptive capacity, and ultimately reducing the negative impacts of drought on food security and the economy.
This study assesses the applicability of the combined drought index (CDI), derived from satellite data, to monitor the evolution of agricultural drought. The CDI combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3), standardized land surface temperature (stdz_LST), and standardized normalized difference vegetation index (stdz_NDVI). We evaluate the performance of the CDI against rice crop damage reports from 2001 to 2019.
Our results demonstrate that the performance of the CDI varies across different provinces, with overall performance found to be better in the southern and eastern provinces of the country. Specifically, 59% of the provinces exhibit at least 70% accuracy and hit rate, while 67% have false alarm rates of less than 30%. However, only 16% of the provinces have at least 50% precision, suggesting an overestimation of drought events.
Our study highlights the potential of satellite-based drought monitoring as an efficient tool for detecting drought impacts on rice in the Philippines. This has important implications for improving the resilience of the agricultural sector, guiding the development of policies and practices aimed at enhancing its adaptive capacity, and ultimately reducing the negative impacts of drought on food security and the economy.