[A-AS05] From Weather Predictability to Controllability

[AAS05-P04] Artificial generation of upstream maritime heavy rains to govern intense-rain-induced disasters over land

*Shunji Kotsuki¹ (1.Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University)

Keywords:weather control, ensemble weather prediction, model predictive control

Japan's Moonshot program, initiated by the Japan Science and Technology Agency, aims to mitigate weather-related disasters by developing weather control technology. Our project aims at exploring methods to generate upstream maritime heavy rains to govern intense-rain-induced disasters over land. For that purpose, we need to develop a mathematical method to steer the atmosphere towards a favorable direction. Our initial investigations involve analyzing meteorological landscapes to find a separatrix that differentiates disaster and non-disaster scenarios. Using operational ensemble weather prediction data provided by Japan Meteorological Agency, our data-driven approach captures Typhoon Dolphin's landscape, revealing two distinct regimes that may be controllable with small manipulations. Additionally, we have begun coupling the model predictive control and data assimilation to find effective manipulations that guide the dynamical system towards predetermined directions. This presentation provides an overview of our project, and the most recent advancements until the time of the conference.