17:15 〜 18:45
[AAS06-P07] Evaluation of the possibility of impact-based forecasting of Korean typhoons through regional risk index and case analysis
キーワード：Typhoon, Impact-based forecast, Typhoon-Ready System , Regional risk index
Typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula are getting stronger(WMO, 2021; IPCC, 2021; Na and Jung, 2021). This is similar to changes in tropical low pressure caused by climate change not only on the Korean Peninsula but also around the world. World Meteorological Organization recommends a change in the impact forecast in the phenomenon forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and the National Weather Service(NWS) have established disaster prevention and changed the national management policy stance by providing information on risks in advance about the effects of extreme weather disasters, responding to them, and taking action in advance. A paradigm shift was attempted by declaring the Weather-Ready Nation(WRN), a national strategy to minimize damage, as a strategic plan for the next 10 years in 2011. Starting with the declaration of paradigm shift of WRN, various countries around the world (Britain, France, Japan, China, etc.) have conceptualized the words 'READY' and 'PREPARE' in relation to tropical cyclones such as typhoons and hurricanes, establishing disaster prevention. In addition, with the help of the World Meteorological Organization, several developing countries in East Asia(Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.), which are heavily affected by typhoons, are actively introducing impact forecasts (Xu et al., 2015; Katie et al., 2016; Nguten et al., 2021; Nofal et al., 2021; Thuc et al., 2022; Do and Kuleshov, 2022).
This study aims to evaluate the possibility of typhoon impact prediction in Korea by utilizing the risk index calculated by the Typhoon-Ready System(TRS), which was developed to establish the basis for typhoon impact prediction in Korea. The possibility and validity of the risk index were analyzed through the analysis of representative typhoon cases(MAEMI, RUSA, MITAK, LINGLING etc) applying the complex weather disaster risk index based on impact prediction, and in particular, the possibility of typhoon impact prediction in Korea was evaluated through the risk level proposal for regional-specific risk indices, which are the core of impact prediction.
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. RS-2023-00212688)
This study aims to evaluate the possibility of typhoon impact prediction in Korea by utilizing the risk index calculated by the Typhoon-Ready System(TRS), which was developed to establish the basis for typhoon impact prediction in Korea. The possibility and validity of the risk index were analyzed through the analysis of representative typhoon cases(MAEMI, RUSA, MITAK, LINGLING etc) applying the complex weather disaster risk index based on impact prediction, and in particular, the possibility of typhoon impact prediction in Korea was evaluated through the risk level proposal for regional-specific risk indices, which are the core of impact prediction.
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. RS-2023-00212688)