[A-AS07] 東アジアの異常天候・都市災害と気候変動との関わり

[AAS07-P04] Development of Super-Sampling Downscaling for Wintertime Snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan

*稲津 將¹、大西 肇² (1.北海道大学大学院理学研究院、2.北海道大学大学院理学院)

The companion presentation developed a cost-effective downscaling method nominated super-sampling downscaling to address model uncertainty in regional evaluation for climate change. We performed this super-sampling downscaling focusing on wintertime snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan. The generated downscaling for CMIP5’s historical climate was sampled from d4PDF historical experiment, and that for CMIP5’s RCM8.5 climate was sampled from d4PDF 4K experiment. The results suggested that CMIP models showed a general trend of negative WP pattern in which westerly winter monsoon prevails over Hokkaido, which is consistent with the previous study only based on d4PDF. It is likely that the global warming increases the snowfall over western and central Hokkaido and decreases the snowfall along the southern coast of Hokkaido.