17:15 〜 18:45
[AOS11-P04] Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality in Global Lakes and Reservoirs:
Assessment Using the PAMOLARE2L Two-Layer Model
キーワード：水質、地球温暖化、湖、富栄養化
Climate change is progressing globally, affecting various aspects of the environment, including water quality issues such as eutrophication in lakes and reservoirs. The impact of global warming on the quality and quantity of water resources is significant, raising concerns for potential implications across diverse fields such as domestic water supply, agriculture, industry, and health. Given these circumstances, understanding the effects of warming on water resources, and implementing appropriate measures has become urgent.
The Global Lakes and Reservoirs Database (GLR) has been developed to address this challenge. GLR provides comprehensive information on lakes and reservoirs, including basic data for each lake and reservoir, storage capacity, hydrological and water quality (nutrient) parameters, as well as location and shape information. In this study, we utilized this data to construct a two-layer model capable of calculating the impacts of global climate change and precipitation changes on lake water quality. The model employed was the PAMOLARE2L two-layer model, developed in 2000 by UNEP-IETC and Kyoto University. This model simulates the movement and reactions of substances in the different water layers of lakes, specifically the upper and lower layers.
The main processes considered in simulating substance movement include; phosphorus uptake by phytoplankton, photosynthesis, uptake of undigested remains, predation on undigested remains, sedimentation of phytoplankton, mineralization, substance movement through fishing, mineralization of organic phosphorus compounds in particles, phosphorus release through interstitial water diffusion, inputs and outputs, respiration rate (mortality), and sedimentation of detritus. Taking these into account, the model can evaluate phosphorus and nitrogen cycling, COD, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus.
Furthermore, high-precision climate model datasets essential for climate change research, such as the d4PDF with MRI-CGCM3 and HadCam3 models, were used to evaluate water quality. The future climate prediction data for 2050, based on the RCP8.5 scenario from MRI-AGCM3.2H, was also employed.
Through this research, water quality assessments were conducted for 110 lakes using future climate prediction results, enabling an understanding of the potential impacts of warming on future water quality. This comprehensive assessment provides essential baseline data for water quality management and environmental protection efforts, contributing to the development of more effective adaptation strategies for climate change. Moreover, the study offers indispensable data and models for predicting water quality changes based on future climate change scenarios, marking a step toward sustainable management and conservation of lake environments.
Building on these findings, a comprehensive framework was established for evaluating the impact of climate change on lake water quality by adapting the PAMOLARE2L two-layer model with data from the GLR database and d4PDF. This framework provides a scientific basis for maintaining healthy lake ecosystems and effectively addressing future water quality issues, offering valuable information for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. It also contributes to a deeper understanding of global environmental issues by elucidating the mechanisms behind water quality changes due to climate change and sharing these insights broadly.
The Global Lakes and Reservoirs Database (GLR) has been developed to address this challenge. GLR provides comprehensive information on lakes and reservoirs, including basic data for each lake and reservoir, storage capacity, hydrological and water quality (nutrient) parameters, as well as location and shape information. In this study, we utilized this data to construct a two-layer model capable of calculating the impacts of global climate change and precipitation changes on lake water quality. The model employed was the PAMOLARE2L two-layer model, developed in 2000 by UNEP-IETC and Kyoto University. This model simulates the movement and reactions of substances in the different water layers of lakes, specifically the upper and lower layers.
The main processes considered in simulating substance movement include; phosphorus uptake by phytoplankton, photosynthesis, uptake of undigested remains, predation on undigested remains, sedimentation of phytoplankton, mineralization, substance movement through fishing, mineralization of organic phosphorus compounds in particles, phosphorus release through interstitial water diffusion, inputs and outputs, respiration rate (mortality), and sedimentation of detritus. Taking these into account, the model can evaluate phosphorus and nitrogen cycling, COD, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus.
Furthermore, high-precision climate model datasets essential for climate change research, such as the d4PDF with MRI-CGCM3 and HadCam3 models, were used to evaluate water quality. The future climate prediction data for 2050, based on the RCP8.5 scenario from MRI-AGCM3.2H, was also employed.
Through this research, water quality assessments were conducted for 110 lakes using future climate prediction results, enabling an understanding of the potential impacts of warming on future water quality. This comprehensive assessment provides essential baseline data for water quality management and environmental protection efforts, contributing to the development of more effective adaptation strategies for climate change. Moreover, the study offers indispensable data and models for predicting water quality changes based on future climate change scenarios, marking a step toward sustainable management and conservation of lake environments.
Building on these findings, a comprehensive framework was established for evaluating the impact of climate change on lake water quality by adapting the PAMOLARE2L two-layer model with data from the GLR database and d4PDF. This framework provides a scientific basis for maintaining healthy lake ecosystems and effectively addressing future water quality issues, offering valuable information for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. It also contributes to a deeper understanding of global environmental issues by elucidating the mechanisms behind water quality changes due to climate change and sharing these insights broadly.