17:15 〜 18:45
[HDS09-P14] Heatwave Risk and Life Insurance Industry: Focusing on Predicting Future Summer Mortality Rates
キーワード：Climate change, Heatwave, Heat-related mortality, Future scenario
Climate change is causing an ongoing increase in heatwave-related damages in urban areas, and the projected intensification of heatwaves in terms of both intensity and duration underscores the growing significance of this issue. Therefore, in this study, current mortality statistics were utilized to analyze the correlation between Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and fatalities. Using the derived regression equation, an analysis was conducted to predict future mortality rates. The results indicate a positive correlation between daily average WBGT and the number of fatalities. Specifically, in Seoul, a sharp increase in fatalities was observed with WBGT rising, with a threshold of 27.13 degrees, and in Busan, the threshold was 24.7 degrees.
Using four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios provided by the Meteorological Administration’s detailed scenario for South Korea, future mortality rates were predicted. The forecast suggests a more substantial increase in fatalities in SSP Seoul. According to the SSP scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the 21st century, fatalities in Seoul could increase by a minimum of 123% to a maximum of 182%, while in Busan, the projected increase ranges from a minimum of 109% to a maximum of 119%. This highlights the severity of future heatwave-related damages.
Using four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios provided by the Meteorological Administration’s detailed scenario for South Korea, future mortality rates were predicted. The forecast suggests a more substantial increase in fatalities in SSP Seoul. According to the SSP scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the 21st century, fatalities in Seoul could increase by a minimum of 123% to a maximum of 182%, while in Busan, the projected increase ranges from a minimum of 109% to a maximum of 119%. This highlights the severity of future heatwave-related damages.