[M-IS06] Extreme Weather and Water Related Disasters in Asia

[MIS06-03] Severe Wind Risk Assessment for Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) in the Philippines

Jomar A. Layderos^1,2、Karlo J. Timbal¹、Orlean G. Dela Cruz²、*Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II¹ (1.Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration、2.Graduate School, Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Manila)

キーワード：Severe Wind, Risk Assessment, Building Typology, Damage state, Tropical Cyclone Risk Model

This paper presents the estimated severe wind risks associated with Super Typhoon Doksuri (“Egay”) on different building typologies along its path as it traversed the northern part of the Philippines in 2023. The Severe Wind Estimation of Risk Using Vulnerability and Exposure (SWERVE) tool is used to estimate the severity of damage a particular building could suffer due to severe wind. A comprehensive damage state of the building types was obtained and the results were compared with those reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Comparisons revealed that the SWERVE-estimated partially damaged houses are underestimated by 13%, while completely damaged houses were overestimated by about 13.5% relative to the NDRRMC-reported data. Further refinement of the SWERVE tool is needed to closely resemble the observed damaged state of the buildings. Nevertheless, the exposure data (i.e., the total number of buildings/houses) as used in the model simulation and the way the reports were taken might be the main source of discrepancies. Hence, a more extensive validation of datasets is required to further improve the estimated risks.