09:00 〜 09:15
[MZZ40-01] Prioritization of Different Kinds of Natural Disasters and Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events
キーワード：低頻度・巨大損失事象、小惑星衝突、保険
On a planetary scale, catastrophic disasters such as, (1) volcanic disasters, (2) asteroid impacts, and (3)long-term climate changes, are the three major events classified as low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events. However, on a shorter timescale, mankind is more vulnerable to frequent disasters, such as (i) large floods, (ii) epidemics, (iii) earthquakes, (iv) tsunamis, and (v) small-medium scale volcanic eruptions. We are now going to expand our activity into space where humans become more vulnerable to space radiation, low gravity and frequent asteroid impacts.
These are known as high-probability, low-medium-consequence events (HPLC). LPHC occurrences have a very low probability of occurring, but they would have catastrophic consequences. HPLCs occur more frequently, with most of them having decadal frequency. They cause local fatalities, but they are never global in scale.
We are prepared and enjoy the safety of living on the surface of the Earth, based on the following assumption that (1) the probability of occurrence of human-injuring impacts are relatively low frequency based on historical studies, (2) the probability does not change drastically, and (3) when dangerous objects approach the Earth we are able to detect them in time.
However, if items (1) (2) are not true, all scenarios should be re-considered. In such cases, we have no financial mechanism to adopt such sudden change.
In this study, we focus on asteroid impacts, and several assumptions which may work to establish insurance mechanisms and the probability of occurrence doesn’t work effectively in the development of public policy and thus insurance systems.
These are known as high-probability, low-medium-consequence events (HPLC). LPHC occurrences have a very low probability of occurring, but they would have catastrophic consequences. HPLCs occur more frequently, with most of them having decadal frequency. They cause local fatalities, but they are never global in scale.
We are prepared and enjoy the safety of living on the surface of the Earth, based on the following assumption that (1) the probability of occurrence of human-injuring impacts are relatively low frequency based on historical studies, (2) the probability does not change drastically, and (3) when dangerous objects approach the Earth we are able to detect them in time.
However, if items (1) (2) are not true, all scenarios should be re-considered. In such cases, we have no financial mechanism to adopt such sudden change.
In this study, we focus on asteroid impacts, and several assumptions which may work to establish insurance mechanisms and the probability of occurrence doesn’t work effectively in the development of public policy and thus insurance systems.