[P-EM11] Space Weather and Space Climate

[PEM11-P19] Current status of a real-time prediction system of CME arrival and its magnetic field with ensemble SUSANOO-CME simulation

*塩田 大幸¹ (1.国立研究開発法人 情報通信研究機構)

キーワード：宇宙天気予報、コロナ質量放出、太陽風、MHD シミュレーション

The predictions of CME arrival to the Earth and the southward magnetic field brought by the CME flux ropes are one of crucial tasks for space weather forecast. We recently have developed a new prediction system of CME impact (arrival of CME and magnetic field) with MHD simulation SUSANOO-CME (Shiota & Kataoka 2016). The prediction system became available in the space weather forecast operation in August 2022. Based on the real-time observation of flares and CMEs, ensemble simulation can be conducted on the supercomputer in NICT and the results are automatically visualized within 1 hour. The system is design to be operate through a browser and is available to a forecaster who does not have a supercomputer account. In case of emergency for an extremely large flare expected the association of a powerful CME, we can conduct ensemble simulation without CME observation.
In the presentation, we introduce overview of the developed system reviewing the results of several powerful CME events in 2023 used in the actual forecast operation, and discuss future directions.