JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

講演情報

印刷

[EE] 口頭発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-OS 海洋科学・海洋環境

[A-OS17] [EE] Climate variations in the Atlantic Ocean and their representation in climate models

2017年5月24日(水) 09:00 〜 10:30 303 (国際会議場 3F)

コンビーナ:Ingo Richter(JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)、Noel S Keenlyside(Geophysical Institute Bergen)、Thomas Spengler(University of Bergen)、Carlos R Mechoso(University of California Los Angeles)、座長:Richter Ingo(JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)、座長:Mechoso Carlos(University of California Los Angeles)

09:30 〜 09:45

[AOS17-03] Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and its link with the Guinea Dome

*土井 威志1、Storto Andrea2、Richter Ingo1、Behera Swadhin1、山形 俊男1 (1.JAMSTEC、2.CMCC)

キーワード：Atlantic Meridonal Mode, Seasonal prediction, Guinea Dome

Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode is investigated by use of the SINTEX-F climate model from the viewpoint of the preconditioning role of the Guinea Dome. The 2009 strong negative event is successfully predicted a few months ahead when the model is initialized using a three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation (3DVAR) method. However, nudging the sea surface temperature (SST) only for the initialization fails to predict the event. It is shown that the mixed-layer depth in the Guinea Dome region is unrealistically deep in the latter. Denying even one ocean mooring array data at 12ºN, 23ºW in the 3DVAR initialization clearly demonstrates that monitoring the Guinea Dome is very important for predicting the Atlantic Meridional Mode.