14:45 〜 15:00
[SIT24-05] Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for the applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments
キーワード：Coulomb stress change, earthquake forecasting, subduction zone
This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models to the regions with subduction systems, including the depth-component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To manifest the importance of depth-component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with that with two-dimensional cells. Through applications to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, the approaches with three-dimensional grids always obtain better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth-dependency for forecasting, especially for the applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time-dependency becomes crucial only during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.