JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

講演情報

[EJ] ポスター発表

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-IT 地球内部科学・地球惑星テクトニクス

[S-IT32] [EJ] Recent earthquakes and deep structure of the Earth in and around Tibetan Plateau

2017年5月24日(水) 15:30 〜 17:00 ポスター会場 (国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:白 玲(ITP Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)、Mori James(京都大学防災研究所地震防災研究部門)、佐藤 比呂志(東京大学地震研究所地震予知研究センター)、石川 有三(国立研究開発法人 産業技術研究所 活断層・火山研究部門)

[SIT32-P04] Probabilistic seismic hazards for Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions estimated using multiple seismic source and attenuation models

*Md Moklesur Rahman1Ling Bai1Nangyal Ghani Khan1Guohui Li1 (1.ITP,CAS, Beijing, China)

キーワード:Tibetan plateau, probabilistic seismic hazard, peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, logic tree

Tibetan plateau and adjacent region is one of the most seismically active regions of the World. The catastrophic earthquake occurs frequently in this region and causes huge socio-economic losses. For instance, the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal and the 2008 Mw7.9 Sichuan earthquake caused thousands of casualties and huge unrecoverable damages. The proper seismic hazard quantification is widely used an effective tool to reduce the seismic risk.

In this study, we estimate the probabilistic seismic hazards for the Tibetan plateau and adjacent region based on five attenuation models along with three different seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources). In order to capture the epistemic uncertainties, a logic-tree structure was used assigning different weighting factors for various models. The peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 s and 1.0 s were quantified for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance over 50 years considering the bed rock site condition. The hazard maps depicted significant spatio-temporal variations. This study provide new constraints on the improvement of seismic zoning map and consequently on the refined seismic building design codes for the Indian-Eurasian continental collision zone.