日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会

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[EE] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-HW 水文・陸水・地下水学・水環境

[A-HW22] 水循環・水環境

2018年5月24日(木) 13:45 〜 15:15 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:長尾 誠也(金沢大学環日本海域環境研究センター)、町田 功(産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター)、飯田 真一(国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構森林総合研究所森林研究部門森林防災研究領域水保全研究室、共同)、林 武司(秋田大学教育文化学部)

[AHW22-P16] A Fuzzy Logic based Modified Drought Hazard Index for Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Hazard

*Vivek Gupta1Manoj Kumar Jain2 (1.Research Scholar, Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India、2.Associate Professor, Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India)

キーワード:Drought, Climate Change, India

Drought is one of most the costliest natural hazard and occurs mostly in all part of worlds. Multivariate phenomena such as drought need a comprehensive assessment of hazard to reflect the various characteristics of drought. This study presents a modified drought hazard index (MDHI) based on fuzzy logic theory to overcome limitations of currently available hazard assessment indices. Ensemble-averaged projected precipitation and temperature data for RCP 8.5 from 7 RCM models namely, CCCma-CanESM2, CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MOHC-HadGEM2, MIROC-MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR has been used to calculate standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 12-month scale to characterize the droughts. A comprehensive analysis of droughts for India has been performed using MDHI to map various high drought hazard regions over four different time periods i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 for the 21st century. Results of this study suggest an overall increase in the drought hazard over India with the progression of time. Odisha, Jharkhand, Parts of Bihar, West Bengal, Telangana, and Maharashtra are expected to have severe droughts hazard in Period 3 (2061-2080). All Himalayan states in India including Northeastern states are expected to have severe drought hazard in Period 4 (2081-2100).