[1O13-16] uncertainty quantification 1

[1O13] Statistical Uncertainty in Kinetic Analysis using Integral Kinetic Model for Re-criticality Accident in Weakly-Coupled Fuel Debris

＊Delgersaikhan Tuya¹, Hiroki Takezawa¹, Toru Obara¹ (1.Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Keywords:integral kinetic model, criticality accident, statistical uncertainty propagation, weakly-coupled fuel debris

In the Integral Kinetic Model (IKM), which describes time- and space-dependent fission rate during criticality excursion in a nuclear fissile system, the key kinetic parameters are obtained using the Monte Carlo method. Therefore, there is an inevitable statistical uncertainty in estimation of those parameters and such uncertainty propagates through subsequent kinetic calculation by IKM. Estimating the statistical uncertainty in the obtained fission rate will help not only an effort to reduce it, but also a further uncertainty analysis in estimation of other quantities that use the obtained fission rate. In this work, estimation of statistical uncertainty propagation in kinetic analysis for the case of re-criticality accident in weakly-coupled fuel debris is performed.