[1O01-07] Advanced PRA Methodology

[1O05] Development of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology for External Event

Part3:Bayesian estimation for generating fragility curve of high fidelity structure model

*Yoshifumi Katayama¹, Toshiaki Sakai¹, Yasuki Ohtori², Hitoshi Muta² (1. CRIEPI, 2. Tokyo City Univ.)

Keywords:Fragility curve, Bayesian estimation, Seismic PRA, High fidelity structure, Seismic design

We examined a method that can reduce the number of earthquake response analysis required for fragility curve calculation using Bayesian estimation. As a result of applying this method to the water intake structure of a nuclear power plant, the fragility curve by this method becomes comparable with the method of AESJ’s S-PRA standard.