[1O01-07] Advanced PRA Methodology

[1O06] Research on regional risk analysis method with Continuous Markov Monte Carlo and Bayesian network

(1)Introduction to regional risk analysis method

*Satoshi Shinzaki², Akira Yamaguchi¹, Sunghyon Jang¹, Masayuki Hijiya², Kagetomo Miyahara², Kensuke Toyoshima² (1. Univ. of Tokyo, 2. NEL)

Keywords:Continuous Markov Monte Carlo, Bayesian network, multi-site risk, regional risk

We have been developed a dynamic analysis method for multi-site risk and regional risk. In the method, we use Bayesian networks, Markov process and a Monte Carlo method to quantify a unique accident scenario which considers interactions of components modeled. A statistical analysis can be conducted by collecting a lot of unique accident scenarios.