2019 Fall Meeting

Presentation information

Oral presentation

IV. Nuclear Plant Technologies » 403-1 Risk Assessment Technology, Application of Risk Information

[1O01-07] Advanced PRA Methodology

Wed. Sep 11, 2019 10:00 AM - 11:55 AM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Koichi Nakamura(CRIEPI)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[1O06] Research on regional risk analysis method with Continuous Markov Monte Carlo and Bayesian network

(1)Introduction to regional risk analysis method

*Satoshi Shinzaki2, Akira Yamaguchi1, Sunghyon Jang1, Masayuki Hijiya2, Kagetomo Miyahara2, Kensuke Toyoshima2 (1. Univ. of Tokyo, 2. NEL)

Keywords:Continuous Markov Monte Carlo, Bayesian network, multi-site risk, regional risk

We have been developed a dynamic analysis method for multi-site risk and regional risk. In the method, we use Bayesian networks, Markov process and a Monte Carlo method to quantify a unique accident scenario which considers interactions of components modeled. A statistical analysis can be conducted by collecting a lot of unique accident scenarios.