[2B01-04] Radiochemical Analysis at Fukushima Daiichi NPS Site 1

[2B01] Development of inventory evaluation methods for the radioactive wastes of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

(15)Introduction of Bayesian data analysis technique to the modelling estimation method

*Daisuke Sugiyama¹, Ryo Nakabayashi¹, Yoshikazu Koma^2,3, Youko Takahatake^2,3, Yoshio Aoki³ (1. CRIEPI, 2. JAEA, 3. IRID)

Keywords:Radioactive Waste at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Modelling Waste Inventory Estimation Method, Uncertainty, Transport Ratio, Bayesian Data Analysis Technique

The introduction of the Bayesian data analysis technique, in which uncertainties of the radionuclide transport parameters and the calculation results are evaluated by Bayesian data analysis technique, to the modelling estimation method of the radionuclide inventory in wastes generated at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station is investigated. It is expected that the technique will describe quantitatively the process of improvement of credibility in the modelling estimation of radionuclide composition in wastes as the accumulation of analytical measured data on the wastes and contaminated water progresses.