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[65] A Dynamic Land-owning Pattern Choice Model with Bellman Equation

○Risa Kobayashi¹, Eiji Hato¹ (1. The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Landownership, Cadastre, Dynamic Discrete Choice Model, Recursive Logit Model

The purpose of this study is to suggest a disaggregated framework considering speculative behavior for land owning over a long period. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic land-owning pattern choice model with a discount rate as a dynamic discrete choice model, which is based on a random utility model. We estimate the parameters of the proposed model using real data, which are the trajectory of owned land extracted from the old cadastre records in Dogo. From estimation results, the discount rate parameter indicates that landowners myopically chose for lands and also the parameter of distance from the famous public bathhouse known as the major industries in Dogo shows the preference of position of lands.