no19-24

[24] Development of current estimated household data and a future forecast model for nationwide agent simulation

○Kento Kajiwara¹, Toshikazu Seto², Yoshihide Sekimoto³, Yoshiki Ogawa³, Hiroshi Omata³ (1. The University of Tokyo School of Engineering, 2. Komazawa University, 3. The University of Tokyo Center for Spatial Information Science)

Keywords:Future population estimation, household estimation, vacant house estimation, disappearing village

In urban planning of rural cities, such as Location Normalization Plan, it is important to forecast the detailed population and household distribution in the future. This study aims to develop a household transition model, which is a microsimulation of household units, and estimated household data for 2015 in all cities of Japan. Estimated household data contain the address, age and sex of household members, family type, and house type from National Census and building data of Zenrin Co. The household transition model forecasts each attribute of households every five years based on the estimated household data. As application examples of this model, the future distribution of disappearing villages and vacant houses are predicted.