no70-78

[71] A Study on the Influencing Factors of Shrinking Cities in China

Exploring the Differences between cities from 2000 to 2020

○Yuqi Zhang¹, Chiho Ochiai² (1. Kyoto University,Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, 2. Kyoto University, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies)

Keywords:Shrinking Cities, China, Influencing Factors, Spatial Heterogeneity

Urban shrinkage has become a common phenomenon in China. This study, taking all prefecture-level cities in mainland China as the research subject, analyzes the Spatio-temporal changes of shrinking cities from 2000 to 2020 based on the population and socio-economic data. This study identifies factors that significantly affect urban shrinkage through panel data regression and explores the differences in the impact of factors across regions through geographically weighted regression. The results show that: 1) The number of shrinking cities has increased significantly. 2) Urban shrinkage is significantly affected by population mobility, aging, industrial structure upgrading, and local government revenue. 3) There are significant differences in the impact of factors on different regions. In west-central China, shrinking cities are most affected by population mobility. Aging has the strongest impact on Southwest China. Northeastern cities are mainly affected by the industrial structure upgrading, and local fiscal revenue is also an important factor.