2:10 PM - 2:30 PM
[11] Analysis of Errors Considering the Effects of Population Size in Population Projections by Municipalities
Keywords:Population projection, Forecast error, Population size, Cohort component method
Population projection is important for the urban and the regional planning. Because we need to forecast demand for the planning of facilities, and population is the basis for seeking demand. If the projected population is compared with the actually occurred population, probably the error occurs to some extent. This paper gives the method of estimating the range of error which have standard reliability regardless of the population size. In general, as a result of the execution of urban planning, it leads population different from the tendency. If the population of the desired outcome is called the population of the target, the method of the present study enables the judgment whether it is an appropriate target. The object data is a past estimated population by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research and the actual occurred population in each municipality.