no9-12

[12] An Urban Core Allocation Model Considering Dynamic Population Changes for Developing a Strategic Urban Core Planning Approach

○Sunyong Eom¹, Daisuke Hasegawa² (1. University of Tsukuba, 2. The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Urban core, Populaiton decline, Facility planning, Compact city

Rapid population decline requires the reconstruction of urban structure for effective and efficient spatial planning, including the allocation of urban cores. We propose an urban core allocation model that balances residents' proximity to facilities and facility cost by considering population changes. Our model accounts for travel distance, number of facilities, hubs, and new facilities. Based on a case study in the Kanto region, our model revealed differences in the number and location of urban cores compared to a model without population changes. Additionally, the optimal location for urban cores differed, even if the number of hubs was the same. About 30% of municipalities had a different number of cores with our model. Our model suggests different planning strategies based on the intensity of population decrease, including downsized planning and wind-down planning with additional allocation in the initial stage. Our model can aid in effective spatial planning to accommodate rapid population decline while maintaining residents' proximity to facilities.