no110-116

[115] Study on Choice of the Evacuation Behavior based on SP Survey Considering the Decentralized Evacuation

- A Case Study of Takatsu-ku and Miyamae-ku about Epicentral Earthquake in Kawasaki City

○Kenta Tada¹, Kensuke Otsuyama², U Hiroi² (1. Faculty of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2. Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Decentralized Evacuation, Sheltered in private car, Choice Behavior, Multinomial Logit-Model

Recently, overcrowding of shelters and disaster-related deaths have become an issue, and the concept of decentralized evacuation has been attracting attention as a measure to alleviate the problem of overcrowded shelters. This study aims to understand the evacuation preference and to estimate with a multinomial logit-model corresponding to decentralized evacuation in an epicentral earthquake was constructed based on a Stated Preference survey in Kawasaki City. As a result, the number of evacuees in shelters exceeded the capacity by approximately 50%. The current policy of home evacuation in condominium of 10 or more stories in Kawasaki City was not that effective, but it was effective when the target was expanded to 6 or more stories. An important result is that it emphasizes the importance of making assumptions about residents as a bundle of variables with various attributes, rather than treating them uniformly.