[J03-3] Deformation of the lithosphere: Integrating seismology and geodesy through modelling III

[J03-3-05] Lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulation: implication for seismic hazard analysis

^○Alik Ismail-Zadeh^{1, 2}, Alexander Soloviev², Vladimir Sokolov³ (1.Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2.Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 3.National Center for Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Saudi Geological Survey, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, earthquake occurrences, and seismic hazards has significantly advanced during the last decades. Modeling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. We employ a model of lithospheric block-and-fault dynamics constrained by geological, geophysical, and geodetic observations to simulate earthquakes in a seismic-prone region. This model allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns. The model's performance is analyzed in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. We present results of our studies related to modeling of lithosphere dynamics in the Caucasian and Tibet-Himalayan regions. We use then the simulated large seismic events together with observations (recorded and historic earthquakes) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and discuss how hazard assessment can be improved.