Presentation information


IASPEI Symposia » S07. Strong ground motions and Earthquake hazard and risk

[S07-3] Hazard and risk assessment II

Tue. Aug 1, 2017 8:30 AM - 10:00 AM Main Hall (Kobe International Conference Center 1F)

Chairs: Masumi Yamada (Kyoto University) , Massimiliano Pittore (GFZ Potsdam)

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

[S07-3-03] PERSIA, a novel time-dependent seismic hazard model for Iran, preliminary results for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

Hamid Zafarani, Seyed Mostafa Jalalalhosseini (International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran)

Iran is one of the most seismically active continental regions in the world and an accurate assessment of earthquake hazard has a significant effect on decreasing earthquake losses and making plans for urban development. In this regard, using novel and alternative approaches in hazard assessment will greatly improve our knowledge and many questions about special-temporal distribution of earthquakes could be answered. Probabilities of Earthquake Ruptures in Iran (PERSIA), is a framework to evaluate mid and long-term time-dependent seismic hazard through a comprehensive study of the likelihood of large Iranian earthquakes. This study presents preliminary results of time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. Using the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults was calculated. Finally, Tehran time-dependent seismic hazard maps have been presented for the first time, through a logic-tree of five ground motion prediction equations, which include ground motion epistemic uncertainty.