[S07-4] Hazard and risk assessment, and data processing strategies

[S07-4-03] Ground motion predictions in the backdrop of recent claims for mega earthquake in Bangladesh

^○Tahmeed Malik Al-Hussaini (Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh)

The main plate boundaries between north moving Indian plate and the Eurasian plate have been traditionally depicted in seismo-tectonic maps to the east and north of Bangladesh. However, recent seismological studies claim the plate boundary to be extended well inside Bangladesh, and that the major cities of the country may face the risk of a mega earthquake with a magnitude between 8.2 and 9.0. This claim can drastically redefine the seismic zoning map of Bangladesh with ground motion values way above present building codes and way beyond our present perception.

This paper attempts to investigate the possibility and implication of a mega earthquake in the backdrop of such claim. Seismic hazard assessment studies incorporating such mega earthquakes have been conducted, results indicate severely high ground motions for major cities of Bangladesh including the capital city of Dhaka.

A critical review of literature on historical earthquakes affecting the country is done. A rationale for the location and magnitude of the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) is developed through careful review. Ground motion predictions using such MCE have been conducted using both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment approaches. Finally the author's perception of the possibility of mega earthquakes and the way forward in seismological research is presented.