[S07-5] Simulation for scenario earthquakes and strong motion monitoring / processing

[S07-5-03] Strong ground motion simulations for potential earthquakes around Taiyuan, China based on dynamic rupture sources

^○Zhenguo Zhang, Wei Zhang, Xiaofei Chen (Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China)

Using the curved grid finite-difference method, we develop dynamic spontaneous rupture models of earthquakes on the Jiaocheng Fault (JF) near Taiyuan, which is the capital and largest city of Shanxi province in North China, and we then model the wave propagation and strong ground motion generated by these scenario earthquakes. A map of the seismic hazard distribution for the potential M7.5 earthquake is given based on dynamic rupture and true 3D modeling. The tectonic initial stress fields derived from the inversion of focal mechanisms of history earthquakes, a non-planar fault, and a rough surface are considered in the dynamic rupture simulation. Base on the geological structure of the Taiyuan basin, the normal faulting with a dipping angle of 60 degree is implemented for the scenario earthquake simulations. The largest uncertainty of the potential earthquake in the JF zone is the hypocenter. Four cases are used to nucleate the earthquake at different locations. Using these dynamics rupture sources for JF, we further simulate and analyze both the seismic wave generated by the scenario earthquake and the strong ground motion. It is found that the low-velocity media of the Taiyuan basin redistribute the ground motion well. The effects of the regional stress fields on the dynamic rupture and hazard distribution are investigated and discussed further. Moreover, a scenario earthquake, which can cause great damage to Taiyuan City is modeled and analyzed.