[S09-2] Open session: Earthquake generation process – physics, modeling and monitoring for forecast II

[S09-2-03] Coulomb Stress Transfer and Accumulation on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar over the Past 110 years and Its Implications for Seismic Hazard

^○Xiong Xiong^{1, 2}, Bin Shan¹, Yuming Zhou³, Shengji Wei⁴, Yongdong Li¹, Rongjiang Wang⁵ (1.China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China, 2.Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China, 3.Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, USA, 4.Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, 5.GFZGermanResearchCentreforGeosciences, D-14473 Potsdam,Germany)

The seismic hazard of Myanmar has attracted little attention from the world in the past. The economy and urban population of Myanmar is presently growing rapidly. In contrast, the buildings in big cities, such as Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw and elsewhere, are poorly constructed. Therefore, many more people are now at risk from the earthquakes than before. So, the seismic hazard of Myanmar is drawing rapidly increasing attention from the world. The Sagaing Fault (SF), an active right-lateral strike-slip fault passing through Myanmar, has been being the source of serious seismic damage of the country. Thus, awareness of seismic hazard assessment of this region is of pivotal significance by taking into account the interaction and migration of earthquakes with respect to time and space. We investigated a seismic series comprising ten earthquakes with M>6.5 that occurred along the SF since 1906. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) modeling exhibits significant interactions among the earthquakes. After the 1906 earthquake, 8 out of 9 earthquakes occurred in the positively stress-enhanced zone of the preceding earthquakes, verifying that the hypothesis of earthquake triggering is applicable on the SF. Moreover, we identified 3 visible positively stressed earthquake gaps on the central and southern SF, on which seismic hazard is increased.