4:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[S10-1-01] Prospective evaluation of the CSEP-Japan earthquake forecasts experiments
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project of earthquake predictability research. The primary purposes of the CSEP is to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory. The final goal of this project is to investigate the intrinsic predictability of earthquake rupture mechanisms.
A total of 160 models were submitted from all over the world to Japan Testing Center. CSEP-Japan keeps the prospective experiments from 1 November 2009. The models are currently under test in 12 categories, with 3 testing regions and 4 testing classes of different time spans (1day, 3 month, 1 year and 3 years). We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by the CSEP (L, M, N, S) against authorized catalogue compiled by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, we investigate the model performance using log likelihood and information gain per event.
CSEP-Japan testing center has conducted over 30 rounds tests for 3-month testing classes including 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We will discuss these results of evaluation test of the prospective experiments, and checked and compared the performance of the earthquake models.
A total of 160 models were submitted from all over the world to Japan Testing Center. CSEP-Japan keeps the prospective experiments from 1 November 2009. The models are currently under test in 12 categories, with 3 testing regions and 4 testing classes of different time spans (1day, 3 month, 1 year and 3 years). We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by the CSEP (L, M, N, S) against authorized catalogue compiled by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, we investigate the model performance using log likelihood and information gain per event.
CSEP-Japan testing center has conducted over 30 rounds tests for 3-month testing classes including 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We will discuss these results of evaluation test of the prospective experiments, and checked and compared the performance of the earthquake models.