[S10-P] Poster

[S10-P-03] Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory: recent advances and testing issues

Antonella Peresan^{1, 2}, Vladimir Kossobokov^{2, 3}, Giuliano F. Panza^2,4,5, ^○Mattia Crespi⁶ (1.National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics, Seismological Research Centre, CRS-OGS. Udine. Italy, 2.International Seismic Safety Organisation, ISSO, Arsita, Italy, 3.Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics. Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 4.Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People's Republic of China, 5.Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Rome. Italy, 6.Geodesy and Geomatics Division, University "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy)

Long-lasting practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing of CN and M8S algorithms, support feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. The algorithms permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic transients and allow to identify the region and time interval where a strong event is likely to occur. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios through realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) approach. This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, actual scenarios of ground motion at the times when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas.
Recent advances and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special emphasis on the sequence of destructive earthquakes in Central Italy starting on 24 August 2016. Some basic operational and testing issues are addressed, ranging from testing homogeneity/reliability of the input data to the adequate assessment of output information. The results obtained so far support the validity of the proposed methodology in anticipating ground shaking from imminent strong earthquakes and show that the information provided by time-dependent NDSHA can be useful in assigning priorities for timely and effective mitigation actions.