[S11-P] Poster

[S11-P-01] Quantification of Seismic Hazards with Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Time Series: Case Studies of the Japanese Islands and California

Denis Filatov^{1, 2}, ^○Alexey Lyubushin² (1.Sceptica Scientific Ltd, Stockport, United Kingdom, 2.Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)

We employ the approach of statistical physics to quantify current seismic hazards of two geologically active regions of the Earth: the Japanese islands and the west coast of the United States. Specifically, we apply a technique of fractal analysis of time series, a detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method [1], to study the evolution of displacements of the land surface and detect those areas of the Earth's crust that are evolving in a critical mode usually preceding a catastrophe. As the input data, we use freely available time series from GPS stations densely covering both regions of interest. The high density of the data allows producing detailed maps of the seismic hazard and highlighting the riskiest areas where disastrous seismic events are likely to occur in the future [2, 3]. Our findings also demonstrate that vertical and horizontal motions of blocks of the Earth's crust exhibit qualitatively different mechanisms of transition into critical states, which indicates the existence of a general nonlinear mechanism of appearance of critical (precatastrophic) regimes in open stochastic dynamical systems. The results of our analysis were partly confirmed by a recent earthquake struck in Fukushima, Japan, on 21 November 2016.

References

[1] D.M. Filatov, A Method for Identification of Critical States of Open Stochastic Dynamical Systems Based on the Analysis of Acceleration, J. Stat. Phys., 165 (2016) 681-692. DOI: 10.1007/s10955-016-1641-6.
[2] D.M. Filatov and A.A. Lyubushin, Fractal Analysis of GPS Time Series for Early Detection of Disastrous Seismic Events, Physica A, 469 (2017) 718-730. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa. 2016.11.046.
[3] D.M. Filatov and A.A. Lyubushin, Assessment of Seismic Hazard of the Japanese Islands Based on Fractal Analysis of GPS Time Series, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth, accepted for publication.