[S12-2] An interdisciplinary approach towards earthquake prediction studies II

[S12-2-02] Multi-parameter assessments of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals

^○Dimitar Ouzouniv¹, Sergey Pulinets², Tiger Liu³, Katsumi Hattori⁴, Peng Han^4,5 (1.Chapman University, One, Orange, CA, USA, 2.Space Research Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia, 3.National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan, 4.Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, 5.ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Japan)

invited

We apply interdisciplinary observations to study earthquake processes, their physics and the phenomena that precede their energy release. Our approach is based on multi-sensors observations of short-term pre-earthquake phenomena preceding large earthquakes (M>6). The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on sensor web of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal infrared radiation (STIR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), air temperature/humidity measurements) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) (Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011), which explains the synergy of different physical processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. To check the predictive potential of pre-earthquake signals we validate different anomalous signals in retrospective and prospective modes including M6.0 Napa 2014, M6.0 Taiwan 2016 and M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan 2016. Our findings suggest that pre-earthquake signals (with 1-30 days time-lag) follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern, which has been seen in other large earthquakes worldwide. This study was coordinated under the project “Validation of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling (LAIMC) as a concept for geospheres interaction by utilizing space-borne multi-instrument observations“ supported by International Space Science Institute (Bern and Beijing).