2:00 PM - 2:15 PM
[S23-1-03] The research of risk communication using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
[Problems]
From 1995, the “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps" (PSHM) has been published every year. This is a distribution map showing the probability of ground motions larger than shindo 6- occurring within 30 years. The purpose of this map is clearly stated as follows; “It is for the public to properly recognize the risk of the ground motion and to promote their disaster awareness and preparation". However, there is no existing research evaluating this map from the perspective of public's better awareness and preparation. We therefore conducted a research measuring the impacts and efficiency of this map.
[Method of Analysis]
Two social surveys were conducted in 2014 and 2015. We first categorized the participants into 3 types according to the probability (High/Middle/Low), and randomly assigned to 4 groups; 1) seeing no maps, 2) seeing PSHM, 3) seeing global hazard map alone, 4) seeing both global hazard map and PSHM. Then we measured their risk perception of large earthquakes, fear, and behavioral intentions to prevent damage.
[Result]
High region participants showed statistically significant improvement in their risk perception and fear by seeing PSHM. Those of Middle region showed no change both in risk perception and fear. For the case of Low region participants, they reduced risk perception and fear by seeing PSHM, which is completely the opposite effect to the purpose of the hazard map.
Another important result is that participants did not intend to prepare more against disaster even in the High region.
Summarizing above, PSHM could improve risk perception only to those live in high probability area, but do not contribute to the behavioral intention for disaster preparation. Those live in low probability area worsen their risk perception by seeing PSHM, while large earthquakes may occur anywhere in Japan. Contrary to its purpose and expectation, PSHM resulted in not a good communication for public's disaster preparation.
From 1995, the “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps" (PSHM) has been published every year. This is a distribution map showing the probability of ground motions larger than shindo 6- occurring within 30 years. The purpose of this map is clearly stated as follows; “It is for the public to properly recognize the risk of the ground motion and to promote their disaster awareness and preparation". However, there is no existing research evaluating this map from the perspective of public's better awareness and preparation. We therefore conducted a research measuring the impacts and efficiency of this map.
[Method of Analysis]
Two social surveys were conducted in 2014 and 2015. We first categorized the participants into 3 types according to the probability (High/Middle/Low), and randomly assigned to 4 groups; 1) seeing no maps, 2) seeing PSHM, 3) seeing global hazard map alone, 4) seeing both global hazard map and PSHM. Then we measured their risk perception of large earthquakes, fear, and behavioral intentions to prevent damage.
[Result]
High region participants showed statistically significant improvement in their risk perception and fear by seeing PSHM. Those of Middle region showed no change both in risk perception and fear. For the case of Low region participants, they reduced risk perception and fear by seeing PSHM, which is completely the opposite effect to the purpose of the hazard map.
Another important result is that participants did not intend to prepare more against disaster even in the High region.
Summarizing above, PSHM could improve risk perception only to those live in high probability area, but do not contribute to the behavioral intention for disaster preparation. Those live in low probability area worsen their risk perception by seeing PSHM, while large earthquakes may occur anywhere in Japan. Contrary to its purpose and expectation, PSHM resulted in not a good communication for public's disaster preparation.