Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014

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International Session (Oral)

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS01_2PM1] Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2)

Fri. May 2, 2014 2:15 PM - 4:00 PM 419 (4F)

Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). These experiments are yielding a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about a wide variety of forecast models including statistical and/or physics-based models, their components, performance, and methods of testing. We would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. In addition, evaluation methods of earthquake forecasting are discussed.

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

★ [SSS01-01] Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Global Activities

*Danijel SCHORLEMMER1, Matt GERSTENBERGER2, Naoshi HIRATA3, Thomas JORDAN4, Maria LIUKIS4, Warner MARZOCCHI5, David RHOADES2, Hiroshi TSURUOKA3, Maximilian WERNER6, Jeremy ZECHAR7, CSEP WORKING GROUP, The 4 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, 2.GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 3.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan, 4.Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA 90089, USA, 5.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Roma, Italy, 6.School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK, 7.Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)