日本地球惑星科学連合2014年大会

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インターナショナルセッション（口頭発表）

セッション記号 S （固体地球科学） » S-SS　地震学

[S-SS01_2PM1] Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2)

2014年5月2日(金) 14:15 〜 16:00 419 (4F)

コンビーナ:*鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、平田 直(東京大学地震研究所)、座長:Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、庄 建倉(統計数理研究所)

Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). These experiments are yielding a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about a wide variety of forecast models including statistical and/or physics-based models, their components, performance, and methods of testing. We would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. In addition, evaluation methods of earthquake forecasting are discussed.

14:15 〜 14:30

★ [SSS01-01] Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Global Activities

*SCHORLEMMER Danijel1、GERSTENBERGER Matt2、HIRATA Naoshi3、JORDAN Thomas4、LIUKIS Maria4、MARZOCCHI Warner5、RHOADES David2、TSURUOKA Hiroshi3、WERNER Maximilian6、ZECHAR Jeremy7、CSEP WORKING GROUP, The 4 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany、2.GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand、3.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan、4.Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA 90089, USA、5.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Roma, Italy、6.School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK、7.Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)