2014年5月2日(金) 16:15 〜 17:30 419 (4F)

コンビーナ:*鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、平田 直(東京大学地震研究所)、座長:鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)

Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). These experiments are yielding a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about a wide variety of forecast models including statistical and/or physics-based models, their components, performance, and methods of testing. We would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. In addition, evaluation methods of earthquake forecasting are discussed.